New: CEPRES Reveals How U.S. Government Policy Has Shaped Private Markets Performance from 2008–2024

NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES, June 24, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- CEPRES, the leading platform for private market investment data and AI driven insights, has released a landmark study titled “The Impact of U.S. Government Policy on the Private Markets from 2008–2024.” The research provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of how U.S. presidential administrations have influenced private market investments across key sectors, including real estate, venture capital, and consumer over the past four administrations.

Leveraging CEPRES Market Intelligence, which includes granular investment data on over 16,500 funds and 142,000+ PE-backed assets with a combined Enterprise Value of $56 trillion, the paper identifies key patterns in how fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies shaped the private markets over the last 16 years with deal-level returns, default rates, and capital flows.

The findings were derived using CEPRES AInsights, the company’s AI-powered analytics engine, which enabled real-time interpretation of complex investment data. Combined with CEPRES’ proprietary fund and deal deal-level dataset—sourced directly from GPs’ Investment Book of Record (IBOR)—the research reveals nuanced relationships between public policy and private market outcomes with unmatched depth and precision, not available anywhere else.

“This study underscores the vital connection between policy direction and private market dynamics,” said Christopher Godfrey, President of CEPRES Corp.. “By grounding our analysis in deal-level data, we can move beyond simplistic interpretations of scraped data and quantify how different policy environments have supported—or hindered—investment outcomes.”

Key Findings:

• Real Estate:
Real estate performance was resilient during the Obama years, with steady IRRs and low default rates. This trend reversed sharply during Covid under the Trump administration, where U.S. real estate deals showed notably poor IRRs and elevated economic defaults. Performance was muted during the Biden administration but more stable than under Trump.

• Venture Capital:
VC deals were stable under Obama, but surged during the Trump administration—buoyed by pro-business and deregulation-focused policies—and some decline occurred during the Biden years amid shifting regulatory and economic headwinds.

• Consumer Sector:
Consumer deals showed strong revenue growth throughout most administrations but demonstrated a disconnect between topline performance and IRR, particularly during times of policy transition. This signals the importance of analyzing capital efficiency and underlying cost structures, not just growth.

Across all sectors, investor confidence—as reflected in capital deployment and default rate fluctuations—correlated closely with shifts in government priorities, tax policy, and monetary intervention. These insights help contextualize how private markets have responded to evolving economic conditions driven by public policy.

Comparative Insights: U.S. vs. Global Trends
To isolate the effect of U.S. policy, the paper includes comparisons with ex-U.S. investment performance across the same sectors. These comparative charts help distinguish the impact of U.S. government decisions from broader macroeconomic forces such as the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic trends.
Implications for Investors

The paper establishes a forward-looking framework for understanding how future policy shifts may influence private markets. It shows how institutional investors, asset allocators, and consultants can leverage high quality, granular investment data in private markets to inform capital investment strategies, manage risk, and benchmark performance against historical trends.

“This research serves as both a retrospective and a roadmap,” added Christopher Godfrey. “Whether you’re evaluating risk in your own portfolio, or considering underwriting new commitments, or just trying to navigate the choppy waters of the current market conditions, taking a data driven approach to private markets is critical in today’s uncertain world.”

About CEPRES
CEPRES is the premier platform for private market data and AI driven investment analytics. Trusted by Institutional LPs and GPs globally, CEPRES offers fund and deal-level data and analytics not available anywhere else to make informed decisions, manage risk, and navigate an increasingly complex and competitive private market landscape.

To access the full report, visit: https://cepres.com/insights/the-impact-of-us-government-policy-on-the-private-markets-from-2008-2024

Henry Donovan
Ampyre.co
henry@ampyre.co 
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